Author Archives: vignero

From poverty to prosperity

Two weeks ago was Bill gates at the American Enterprise Institute. He was there as a guest to speak about the future economics. Bill Gates believes that people underestimate the chance of the labor market. He thinks that people aren’t ready for this big change. He thinks in the next 20 year there will be a great loss of labor. He speaks about the software substitution. Labors like nurses and waiters will be replaced by software. He is against the raise of the minimum wage because that will mean that for companies the choice between a human worker and a software worker will be made much more easy, the software substitution.
The chance that a big man like this, with all his experience in the technological and economical world is right, is more likely and I agree with his statements. For example, I think that indeed many waiters will be chance to a software substitution. First half of the waiters will be fired. think about not ordering through a waiter but through the table. Only to get you your drinks you will have a waiter.

Table to order your drinks.

The bar can then easy erase products that are out of stock. So that the menu never have to chance. and of course the cost of an extra waiter will be very good for the economics of the bar. And maybe you can say, what about the social contacts between waiter and customer? If that is an priority to a customer is will be longer available. Butt if the cost is more an priority then this way maybe your first choice. And then of course you will only have one Barman who looks at the orders and fills the robot waiters who will deliver your drink. Maybe of ease you at the and only have an automate and just a lovely designed bar with a beautifull view.

The only thing I don’t want to agree right away is the increase of decrease of the human wage. Especially in Belgium, with a high social system decreasing minimal wages will end up in more support of the country etc. The social influence of this decrease of jobs is not an easy calculation of decreasing jobs so increasing poverty.

From poverty to prosperity/

http://www.aei.org/events/from-poverty-to-prosperity-a-conversation-with-bill-gates/

Doctors or Algoritmes

Because there have been a lot of reaction on the Ethical problem of replacing doctors. I looked for some good articles to let you think about the situation.
The article goes about what can software in the form of a algorithm do with the healthcare. Vinod Khosla looked at what can technology do as a social impact on healthcare and education. He supprised himself with the anser that a lot of jobs for teachers and doctors will vanish. They will be replaced with a algorithm or a computer. The main problem will be the doctor-patient relationship. Even if we know that a computer will have better results then a doctor. Even than people will easier rely on “what the doctor said” then what the computer screen says.
I agree totally. And I think every scientist will agree on any other Data. If data 1 is less accurate then data 2 you use data 2. So we will have to convince everyone that data 2, the algoritm is just better then the doctor. We see doctors as people who are always right. But that is not the truth. You have always a human error. And by clouding all the solutions of previous doctors in an algorithm those errors will drop fall of.
Then there is the ethical part. Ask yourself this question, what happens when a doctors makes a mistake. With a mistake I don’t mean cut in the wrong Eye or something. I mean he thinks a person has an other disease than actually true. If He made a big mistake and the patient dies because of his failure. He has a trail to see if he could know. What they then do is asking a lot of other doctors what they would do and see if he made the error or did the patient had a very special disease or an special case.
Imaging now the algorithm, The algorithm already has the opinions of a lot of doctors. So the Jury at the end , if the algorithm is wrong, will just have to say. We need to add a little sidenote in the algorithme so that this will not happen again.
Instead of this happens with every patient with this disease who has a doctor who haven’t got this problem. It only will be ones global.

The longer the algorithme works, the higher it’s quality. Doctors will not disappear very fast , but the quantity will go down. Again a high payed Job that decreases in quantity.

http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/10/doctors-or-algorithms/
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-09/04/doctors-replaced-with-machines

Does better productivity kill jobs?

AS in my last blog. I already asked the question, does it really will kill jobs? We all know that productivity will increase but will jobs be decreased by that fact. This article is about that.

The article asks this question and in this article the McKinsey Global Institute says no. The MGI Says that productivity comes hand in hand with job growth and that increasing productivity in crucial for jobcreation. The MGI gives three reasons why productivity and job growth can complement each other. The first one is productivity can lead to cost reduction. This will lead to lower prices and more demand of the customer, and so also need for more employees. Second the productivity growth is not always about reducing input costs but also about better quality, a higher output.   Third sustaining global competitiveness requires ongoing productivity gains. Therefore attracting and maintaining local Jobs.
I think they are right but only for the close future. Our blog is about is this function divergent or convergent not everything in between. we want to look at infinity where you can divide by 0. This article feels like its made for Americans who are afraid of the word productivity. It is true what they say but only on a land-scale. I wonder is they would do the world at ones, it will still be the same. For one because the competition is then gone.

http://business.time.com/2011/02/23/does-better-productivity-kill-jobs/

Efficiency vs Jobs

I found this ted-conversation about the question:  Efficiency vs Jobs, which should be a priority in modern society? a lot of the talkers opinions are that we always have to be as efficient as possible but that we just have to find new jobs. Some make a big difference between what we do for profit and what for fun. The for profit things will be as efficient as possible. The things for fun will not. Because it’s the proces not the result why you do things for fun. You don’t want a Pc-game played by a pc or just knowing the story of it( then you will watch a movie 😉 ) but you want to play it.

I think that the mainstream of people think the same way but all to superficially, I think no mater what we say today, it still will be totally different. I just hope by the end of this blog it will be just that little bit closer to to futur truth.

Yesterday I though to myself, what if all what we are writing is totally wrong is this blog. What has happened in the past. Because of the industrial revolution people are working less now then before. Could it be that jobs will disappear but that that would be a problem. We will for example work 1 day a week and because of technology we have the rest of the week for all the fun stuff in life.
So you friendly followers. my question to you. If jobs will disappear, will we have to find new ones of get unemployed or will we in the future have double , triple the time for fun?

http://www.ted.com/conversations/12739/efficiency_with_automation_v.html

Hey Siri, why did Apple make you?

Some weeks ago I saw the movie Her. It is movie about a Guy who get’s in love with a computersoftware Samantha, who has the ability to learn.  Of course It isn’t real yet but with a little imagination is can become real in the future. my source, a tedblog* ,  isn’t really statistical but I helps you think outside the box that finding the idea is harder then to produce it if you have the right equipment.
Let us proof that it can exist by contradiction. Siri, done! Siri is the beginning of a computersoftware women who can interact with the surroundings and remember special things you saw. For example if Siri is speaking a contactname wrong, you can help him learn how he has to pronoun it.
Imagine that Siri learns everything you do. Where you go, with who you call, what you say when you call. Siri can find solutions for questions you ask. Now it is only the height of the empire state building. This will only be more spectacular when hardware and software technology increase.
I think it will first start with taking over every callcentre there is. You don’t need to pay people money to look in an excelfile to find the steps people have to take to fix the problem. Siri or Samantha will just understand your questions and reply, keep track of the most used problems and it solves.
After that half of the civil servants will be replaced. All the repetitive working will be taken over by a worker who cost a lot for buy in and only cost energy to work.
What will a civel servant do if he or she can not do something repetitive? how far will it go, how repetitive is has to be for the software. Time will tell

* http://blog.ted.com/2013/06/28/10-old-movies-about-new-technology/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1798709/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1

the fluctuation between labor demand and supply

In this Tedtalk(1) a german men called Rainer Strack talks about the near futur, the future that is we already predict: 2030. for this year there are a lot more old people who can’t work and a lot less people that can. because it is 15 years from now, the new kids don’t could because in 2030 they will be still to young to work. This means that labor supply will decrease and through some calculations the labor demand will increase. Solutions are increase of immigration and retirementage. But still in 2030 we will get an Global Workforce Crisis where the highskilled workforce is in a much harder crisis then the lowskilled. This crisis could be solved by machines and technology. Here the questions arise when, how fast  and to what extend they could do it. Automation already made some jobs disappear but also created new ones, who need even higher skilled workers. Those workers companies will have to search all over the world and try to hold them in their company. This will be the hardest problem for companies in the close future.
The first part of the global workforce crisis i follow his opinion. Indeed this gonna be a big issue and immigration will be needed more then ever or companies have to emigrate. But i think that through automation there are more low skilled jobs that disappear then new high skilled jobs that appear. So automation will help a little bit close the gap.
In this 15 years people will adapt at this situation and a lot of technology will be invented to still keep the labor supply as high as possible. After a while the big part of old people dye and the demand will decrease what could change in an over supply what will get people fired all over the world. The only solution we have is keep the supply and demand equal. but because of the supply will increase through automation this means that or the demand has to increase to or the supply through human work has to decrease. what will end in less people in the world. The bigger the fluctuation between supply and demand, the bigger the changes will be in the technological world to compensate.
To paraphrase. the supply and demand of labor will fluctuate a lot in the future( like waves if we look in the past). if the demand is higher then the supply. we will invent automation and technology to try to fix the problem. When the demand is lower then the supply. people won’t get any jobs and this can be fixed by working less or wait 15 years and getting less children. The only thing that can’t decrease is technology and the human labor will have to adapt to this.
(1)http://www.ted.com/talks/rainer_strack_the_surprising_workforce_crisis_of_2030_and_how_to_start_solving_it_now