the fluctuation between labor demand and supply

In this Tedtalk(1) a german men called Rainer Strack talks about the near futur, the future that is we already predict: 2030. for this year there are a lot more old people who can’t work and a lot less people that can. because it is 15 years from now, the new kids don’t could because in 2030 they will be still to young to work. This means that labor supply will decrease and through some calculations the labor demand will increase. Solutions are increase of immigration and retirementage. But still in 2030 we will get an Global Workforce Crisis where the highskilled workforce is in a much harder crisis then the lowskilled. This crisis could be solved by machines and technology. Here the questions arise when, how fast  and to what extend they could do it. Automation already made some jobs disappear but also created new ones, who need even higher skilled workers. Those workers companies will have to search all over the world and try to hold them in their company. This will be the hardest problem for companies in the close future.
The first part of the global workforce crisis i follow his opinion. Indeed this gonna be a big issue and immigration will be needed more then ever or companies have to emigrate. But i think that through automation there are more low skilled jobs that disappear then new high skilled jobs that appear. So automation will help a little bit close the gap.
In this 15 years people will adapt at this situation and a lot of technology will be invented to still keep the labor supply as high as possible. After a while the big part of old people dye and the demand will decrease what could change in an over supply what will get people fired all over the world. The only solution we have is keep the supply and demand equal. but because of the supply will increase through automation this means that or the demand has to increase to or the supply through human work has to decrease. what will end in less people in the world. The bigger the fluctuation between supply and demand, the bigger the changes will be in the technological world to compensate.
To paraphrase. the supply and demand of labor will fluctuate a lot in the future( like waves if we look in the past). if the demand is higher then the supply. we will invent automation and technology to try to fix the problem. When the demand is lower then the supply. people won’t get any jobs and this can be fixed by working less or wait 15 years and getting less children. The only thing that can’t decrease is technology and the human labor will have to adapt to this.


3 thoughts on “the fluctuation between labor demand and supply

  1. nicolemmens

    All I understood is that we’re in trouble either way… Unless we can indeed ‘steal’ work-ready, high skilled people from other countries. But the talks also says that these other countries themselves will probably have a shortage by then, so where are we going to get these people from? Or am i missing the point here? Seems like we’re just going to have to sit trough this baby-boom aftermath ?

    This talk opened my eyes a little more and just tells me we should brace ourselves even harder for the near future…


  2. Jonas Meirhaeghe

    I looked at this video twice because we, as students, are having no idea what the future will bring. It literately chocked me in a point that the world will have less labors in the future while the demand will increase. I would say that we can attract foreigners so that they can work for us as a labor. In addition, this would mean that their country also would need more labors which can lead to a global problem. In general, Rainer Strack talks about a really serious problem in country which makes it interesting to think about the situation. What do you think what a solution can be? More tightening of foreigners by giving high salaries or waiting for a baby- boom so we can train our own people.


    1. vignero Post author

      Invest in machines and software, that one person can earn more money. Babyboom will not be a good idea. We just have to wait a little until the generation average a little in numbers.



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